Epsilon Archive for Student Projects

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly disrupting ecological interactions critical to agriculture, with pollinator behavior being an important but still underappreciated concern. Pollinators, particularly honey bees, are vital to global food production and ecological balance. This study used a mixed method approach combining farmer surveys and simulation modelling to investigate how climate change is perceived and predicted to influence the behavior of Apis cerana (Asian honey bee) in Sri Lanka, alongside subsequent affects on crop yield and farmer livelihoods reliant on beekeeping. Structured interviews and field surveys were used as primary data collection methods, while secondary data on hive density and crop yield were used for modeling and simulation purposes. Farmer surveys were conducted from seven districts across the country's three major climatic zones (Wet Zone, Intermediate Zone, and Dry Zone) in order to examine farmers’ perceptions of Asian honey bee foraging behavior and pollination activity in relation to climate change, and if these differed across climatic zones. An agent-based simulation model using NetLogo was used to explore both past trends and future projections of bee foraging frequency and its impact on crop yield (for pumpkin, cucumber, avocado) under changing temperature conditions across time periods.

Findings from the farmer survey revealed a significant perceived ecological mismatch in the Dry Zone, particularly between crop flowering and pollinator behaviour, while Wet Zone farmers perceived more stable pollination conditions but also reported nectar source decline. The farmer survey also identified regional disparities in climate-adaptive beekeeping practices, with the Dry Zone exhibiting limited modern practices and low awareness. Agent-based modeling confirmed that rising temperatures (especially during 2025–2034) disrupted bee activity and reduced crop yield for all three crops, but particularly in the Dry Zone for pumpkin. However, moderate recovery was projected for 2035–2044 as temperatures stabilized. To address some of the challenges raised in this research, the study proposed the DEEP BEE model (Decentralized, Empowered, Eco-smart, Participatory Beekeeping Empowerment) as a strategic framework to support climate-resilient beekeeping practices in Sri Lanka. Based on needs identified in farmer surveys, the model emphasizes localized training, diversified floral resources, adaptive hive design, and digital extension services as key means to support beekeeping productivity, pollinator conservation, and rural livelihoods.