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Bergsland, Ulrik, 2017. An econometric estimation of the Swedish hog market : estimation of short and long run elasticites. First cycle, G2E. Uppsala: SLU, Dept. of Economics

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Abstract

The Swedish aggregated hog supply has been in a steadily decreasing trend during
the last twenty years. In this paper the Swedish price supply relationship is examined
to find elasticities for the market. The estimation of the supply function is made
using AR (1) regression. The prices of inputs are made out of feed prices and the
prices of output are the price paid to the producer. A risk variable is introduced to
account for short term price fluctuations, however the risk variable shows no
significance. The period that is studied is 1996-2015 and analyses quarterly data.
The results suggest that the Swedish elasticities are in line with prior estimates in
other hog markets in the world. The conclusion drawn is that the relationship
between prices and supply are positive. Further research is proposed with further
refined methods and more variables included to confirm the results of this paper.

,

Det svenska aggregerade utbudet av fläskkött har varit i en ständigt nedgående trend
under de senaste tjugo åren. I denna uppsats undersöks den svenska pris- och
utbudsrelationen och elasticiteten för den svenska grismarknaden föreslås.
Estimeringen av den svenska utbudsfunktionen utförs genom AR(1) regression.
Inputpriserna utgörs av foderpriser och produktpriserna utgörs av slaktsvinspriser.
En riskvariabel introduceras för att räkna på korta fluktuationer i priserna och
producenternas reaktioner kring detta, riskvariabeln visade ingen signifikans i
resultatet. Studien sträcker sig mellan 1996-2015 och analyserar kvartalsdata.
Resultaten visar på att elasticiteten på den svenska grismarknaden ligger i samma
spann som internationella marknader. Slutsatsen som dras är att pris och
utbudsrelationen är positiv. Det föreslås ytterligare undersökningar med fler
variabler och en mer utvecklad metod för att bekräfta dessa resultat.

Main title:An econometric estimation of the Swedish hog market
Subtitle:estimation of short and long run elasticites
Authors:Bergsland, Ulrik
Supervisor:Surry, Yves
Examiner:Hart, Robert
Series:Examensarbete / SLU, Institutionen för ekonomi
Volume/Sequential designation:1122
Year of Publication:2017
Level and depth descriptor:First cycle, G2E
Student's programme affiliation:NY001 Agricultural Programme - Economics and Management 270 HEC
Department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Economics
Keywords:elasticity, hog supply, econometrics, time-series
URN:NBN:urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-s-8524
Permanent URL:
http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:slu:epsilon-s-8524
Subjects:Economics and management
Language:English
Deposited On:02 Nov 2017 08:10
Metadata Last Modified:02 Nov 2017 08:10

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