Epsilon Archive for Student Projects

Abstract

Climate change and land-use change are expected to reshape ecosystems and the benefits they provide to people, also referred to as ecosystem services. In watersheds, future development decisions can influence how landscapes regulate water, retain soil and provide accessible nature for human well-being. These interactions are especially relevant in areas facing increasing climate related pressures like warming and flood risk, where adaptation strategies may involve nature based solutions or technical infrastructure. This thesis examines how alternative land use scenarios
for the Nissan watershed in southwestern Sweden may affect selected ecosystem service-related indicators by 2060.

The study builds on qualitative stakeholder workshop narratives from the municipalities Gislaved and Oskarström/Halmstad, developed as part of the Room4Water project. These narratives were aligned with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways to create four contrasting future scenarios, each representing a different combination of governance (coordinated vs. fragmented) and adaptation strategy (nature-based vs. grey/technical), with associated variation in future climate pressure and land-use development. The qualitative
scenarios were translated into spatially explicit land-use/land-cover maps and used as input for three ecosystem service models in the InVEST modelling framework: Sediment Delivery Ratio, Seasonal Water Yield and Urban Nature Access.

Results show that scenario outcomes differed strongly between indicators and across the watershed. Scenario 1, representing coordinated governance and nature-based adaptation under mild climate-stress, generally produced the most favourable results, with reduced sediment export,
reduced quickflow runoff and the smallest decline in urban nature balance per capita. The other scenarios showed stronger pressures and declines in ecosystem service indicators, particularly where land cover shifted towards arable land, artificial surfaces or young and clear-cut forest.
Urban nature balance per capita declined in all scenarios, showing that population demand and spatial accessibility can strongly shape how urban nature supply is interpreted. Synergies between all three indicators, meaning areas where all three improved, were spatially limited, while single indicator declines were more common. Overall, the results suggest that spatially explicit scenario modelling can help compare alternative land use futures and identify where ecosystem service related changes may occur, though results should be interpreted as relative scenario indicators
rather than precise predictions.