Epsilon Archive for Student Projects

Abstract

Human-wildlife conflict, particularly lion (Panthera leo) predation on livestock, is a significant challenge for conservation and a primary driver of retaliatory killings. This study investigated the influence of environmental factors such as moon phase, temperature, precipitation, and grass height on lion hunting success on cattle in the Ol Pejeta Conservancy (OPC), Kenya. Data were analysed from livestock mortality and health records collected between March 2024 and April 2026, comprising a total of 245 recorded attacks (172 kills and 73 injuries).
The results indicate that moonlight was the most significant environmental factor behind predation patterns. Statistical analysis showed that nocturnal predation on cattle was highest during the new moon (p < 0.001 when phases were grouped). I suggest that darkness facilitates the lions' ambush hunting strategy, which is also supported by other studies. Conversely, the present study found a behavioral adaptation where lions increased their daytime hunting activity on cattle during periods with full moon. I suggest that this was a behavioural adaptation where they compensate for reduced hunting success during bright nights. Other investigated factors, including temperature, precipitation, and grass height, showed no statistically significant correlations with predation rates in this specific dataset.
The findings suggest that understanding the relationship between environmental conditions and predator behaviour is essential for developing effective mitigation strategies. By adapting livestock husbandry and herding vigilance to the lunar cycle, while remaining mindful of other environmental factors, predation risk can be reduced, thereby minimizing economic losses for herders and promoting a more sustainable coexistence between humans and lions.