Epsilon Archive for Student Projects

Abstract

Climate change poses a growing threat to agricultural production in tropical regions, where coffee cultivation is highly sensitive to temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events. This study analyses how climate change affects coffee production in three of the world’s most important coffee-producing countries: Brazil, Vietnam, and Ethiopia. Using a country-level panel dataset covering the period 1993–2023, the study examines the association between climate variables, average temperature, precipitation, and drought intensity and coffee yields. Climate exposure is measured using production-area weights of major coffee-growing regions to better capture the local agronomic conditions for coffee production. Fixed-effects panel regressions are employed to control for unobserved country-specific characteristics and global price dynamics. The findings of the study suggest that temperature has significant and robust effect on coffee yields even when controlling for other climate indicators and price variables.