Epsilon Archive for Student Projects

Abstract

This thesis explores whether the record 18 August 2021 cloudburst in Gävleborg affected the prices of homes situated on the flooded streets. I merge 10 888 residential transactions from the Booli database with address-level Depth × Rain scores to identify highly exposed dwellings and employ a Difference-in-Differences framework, complemented by a weekly event-study spanning two years around the storm. Controlling for fixed housing attributes and calendar-week trends, the preferred specification indicates a price discount of about 1 350 to 1 475 SEK/m2, which corresponds to a decline of 6–7 % for highly exposed properties relative to very-low-risk comparators. The largest negative point estimates appear for ground-floor apartments and for sales concluded within the first post-event year, hinting at behavioural salience that may fade over time. Although Sweden’s standard home-insurance cover is still broadly available, recent reporting suggests that both insurers and lenders are beginning to reassess climate-exposed collateral, which could amplify market responses in the future. Taken together, the evidence offers cautious support for the notion that pluvial-flood risk is capitalised in Swedish housing prices, but further research with additional events and longer horizons is needed before firm conclusions can be drawn.