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Laguna Marin, Clara, 2022. Assessment of future climate and land use changes on streamflow and phosphorus transport in a Swedish agricultural catchment. Second cycle, A2E. Uppsala: SLU, Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment



Despite efforts to reduce nutrient excess in surface waters in the last decades, eutrophication continues to be an important environmental problem in Europe. The presence of excess phosphorus (P) in waters, together with nitrogen (N), is one of its main causes. It is crucial to understand how P may respond to future environmental change to adopt adequate management strategies to fight this problem in the long term. The present study explored this direction of research by testing the effects of future climate, weather and land use on streamflow and total P using hydrologic and water quality modelling in Sävjaån catchment (722km2), central Sweden. The scenarios represented future changes in the period 2071-2100
derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios, changes in extreme precipitation patterns and land use changes. Results showed higher maximum P loads when more extreme precipitation events were combined with high emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Besides, extreme precipitation increase caused significant differences between maximum and minimum annual P loads, suggesting an increased uncertainty in future projections. Lastly, results indicated a shift in the seasonal distribution in loads, with decreases in winter and spring loads associated with less snowfall and increases in autumn and especially summer loads.

Main title:Assessment of future climate and land use changes on streamflow and phosphorus transport in a Swedish agricultural catchment
Authors:Laguna Marin, Clara
Supervisor:Lannergård, Emma
Examiner:Futter, Martyn
Volume/Sequential designation:UNSPECIFIED
Year of Publication:2022
Level and depth descriptor:Second cycle, A2E
Student's programme affiliation:NM029 Soil, Water and Environment - Master's Programme, 120.0hp
Supervising department:(NL, NJ) > Dept. of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment
Keywords:surface water modelling, phosphorus, suspended sediment, climate change scenarios, socio-economic scenarios, INCA-PEco
Permanent URL:
Subject. Use of subject categories until 2023-04-30.:Water resources and management
Deposited On:19 Jan 2023 11:22
Metadata Last Modified:20 Jan 2023 02:00

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